IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.8	#108
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.8	#65
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.3	#85

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.5	#146

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	1.8%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	0.9%	3.8%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.7%	28.0%	15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.5%	7.8%	1.8%
Average Seed	11.7	10.4	12.1

.500 or above	79.6%	94.5%	77.5%
.500 or above in Conference	73.1%	85.6%	71.2%
Conference Champion	18.9%	30.5%	17.2%
Last Place in Conference	3.4%	1.4%	3.7%

First Four	1.3%	2.9%	1.1%
First Round	16.1%	26.8%	14.5%
Second Round	4.2%	9.2%	3.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.2%	3.2%	1.0%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.9%	0.3%
Final Four	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 3	2 - 5
Quad 3	6 - 4	8 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 2	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	20	@ LSU	L	75-87	13%
Nov 11, 2019	298	Jacksonville	W	85-73	86%
Nov 22, 2019	76	Western Kentucky	L	75-78	39%
Nov 30, 2019	193	Dartmouth	W	79-70	78%
Dec 07, 2019	201	Oakland	W	82-73	79%
Dec 15, 2019	311	Cleveland St.	W	85-69	91%
Dec 20, 2019	318	Norfolk St.	W	82-68	88%
Dec 31, 2019	321	Hartford	W	83-66	93%
Jan 03, 2020	129	Kent St.	W	79-74	67%
Jan 07, 2020	150	Miami (OH)	W	77-71	70%
Jan 11, 2020	217	@ Ohio	W	78-74	63%
Jan 14, 2020	231	@ Western Michigan	W	79-74	66%
Jan 18, 2020	147	Northern Illinois	W	77-71	70%
Jan 21, 2020	222	Eastern Michigan	W	73-63	80%
Jan 25, 2020	112	@ Toledo	L	73-76	41%
Jan 28, 2020	120	Ball St.	W	79-75	62%
Jan 31, 2020	104	@ Buffalo	L	82-85	40%
Feb 04, 2020	154	@ Central Michigan	W	83-82	51%
Feb 08, 2020	112	Toledo	W	76-73	60%
Feb 11, 2020	132	@ Akron	L	70-71	47%
Feb 15, 2020	120	@ Ball St.	L	76-78	43%
Feb 22, 2020	217	Ohio	W	81-71	80%
Feb 25, 2020	132	Akron	W	73-68	66%
Feb 29, 2020	150	@ Miami (OH)	W	74-73	50%
Mar 03, 2020	129	@ Kent St.	L	76-77	47%
Mar 06, 2020	104	Buffalo	W	85-82	59%
Projected Record						16 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.3	4.6	5.2	3.7	1.9	0.6		18.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.8	3.3	5.3	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0			13.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.7	3.4	4.9	2.4	0.4	0.0					11.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	3.0	4.6	2.0	0.2	0.0						10.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	2.4	4.6	1.9	0.2								9.3	5th
6th								0.1	1.6	4.0	1.9	0.3									7.9	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	3.5	2.3	0.3	0.0									7.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.7	2.7	2.5	0.3	0.0										6.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.6	2.0	2.2	0.5	0.0											5.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.4	1.5	1.8	0.6	0.0												4.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.0													3.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0														1.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.9	3.3	4.9	6.6	8.4	9.5	10.5	11.1	10.8	10.2	8.2	6.3	3.9	1.9	0.6			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	100.0%	1.9		1.9	0.0
16-2	96.4%	3.7		3.3	0.4
15-3	82.5%	5.2		3.8	1.4	0.1
14-4	55.4%	4.6		2.2	1.8	0.4	0.0
13-5	22.6%	2.3		0.6	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.4%	0.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.9%	18.9		12.5	4.8	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		87.0%	54.7%	32.3%	5.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		71.3%
17-1	1.9%		77.2%	51.2%	26.0%	8.6		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.4		53.2%
16-2	3.9%		59.3%	46.2%	13.1%	10.5					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0			1.6		24.4%
15-3	6.3%		45.5%	35.9%	9.6%	11.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.4		14.9%
14-4	8.2%		30.5%	27.8%	2.7%	12.2							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0		5.7		3.8%
13-5	10.2%		23.1%	21.9%	1.2%	12.7											0.0	0.1	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.0	0.0	7.8		1.5%
12-6	10.8%		16.1%	16.0%	0.1%	13.0												0.1	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	9.1		0.2%
11-7	11.1%		11.7%	11.7%	0.0%	13.4													0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	9.8		0.0%
10-8	10.5%		7.6%	7.6%		13.7													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	9.7
9-9	9.5%		4.9%	4.9%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.1
8-10	8.4%		2.3%	2.3%		14.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.2
7-11	6.6%		2.2%	2.2%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	6.5
6-12	4.9%		0.6%	0.6%		15.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9
5-13	3.3%		0.4%	0.4%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3
4-14	1.9%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		1.9
3-15	1.1%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0															0.0		0.0	1.1
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.7%	14.6%	2.2%	11.7		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.7	2.3	4.8	4.0	2.0	0.7	0.1	83.3		2.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	3.0	15.0	27.7	8.6	40.0	8.2		0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.8		3.4		3.4	48.3		44.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	5.3			2.2		63.0	30.4	4.3